Economic Outlook 2010

Economic Outlook 2010 - Stocks

The stock market has benefited greatly from a depreciating dollar especially exporters. Unfortunately, the weak dollar is not a panacea for all of our troubles.

Although the economy has shown some signs of basing, key areas such as new orders for durable goods and consumer credit are still declining. Historically this has been associated with negative returns for stocks.

Washington’s meddling in economic and financial affairs, while well intentioned, will ultimately prove troublesome for stocks. Likewise, the markets have typically reacted poorly in the year before tax increases.

Our indicators suggest smaller capitalization securities should perform admirably during rallies. The weaker dollar may also benefit certain basic material stocks, especially those involved with precious metals. Select technology issues may also perform relatively better as this sector often leverages export opportunities.

Look for extreme volatility and poor performance for lower quality stocks.

Positives		Negatives
	Weak dollar		Important business factors still negative
	Huge increase in money supply		Consumer credit declining
			Rise in gold
			Rising taxes and regulations
			Expensive valuations, sector leadership lacking

Download The Long-term Economic Report (.PDF 1.7 Mb) PDF

Download The Long-term Economic Report (.PDF 1.9 Mb)

James News

August 18, 2011
Market Volatility: What are we doing?

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July 29, 2011
Special Study - No American Default

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May 20, 2011
Special Study - How to Offset Inflation

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Jan 24, 2011
New Years Forecast - Dayton B2B Finance

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Jan 18, 2010
Topping Markets

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Jul 13, 2009
New Stimulus Won't Cure Economic Woes

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Dec 8, 2008
Rally at Hand

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